Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster is famous for his annual prediction that Apple’s long-rumored television is launching next year, but this year he’s mixing it up a little, predicting instead that it will be launched in two years’ time.
Back in 2011, he predicted at the IGNITION conference that it would launch before the 2012 holiday season. Once it was clear that wasn’t going to happen, he predicted late in 2012 that it would be arriving in time for, yep, you guessed it, the 2013 holiday season. He clung to that one throughout the early part of last year, but has kept quiet on the subject this year – until now …
Interviewed by Business Insider back at the scene of his 2011 prediction, he belatedly noticed that Apple does tend to take a few years between new product categories and has hedged his bets by predicting instead that the Apple television is two years away and will be launched in 2016. All we need now to complete the comedy of errors is for Apple to launch next year.
Not deterred by the fact that he’s been proven wrong on the launch date every year, he is confidently predicting sales figures, estimating the smart television market at 220M units and forecasting that Apple will take 10% of that market, giving them 22M sales in the first year.
He does, though, deserve credit for opening the interview with the wry observation that being asked to try once more on the date is part of his “annual penance for being incorrect.”
Filed under: AAPL Company Tagged: Apple 4K TV, Apple 5K TV, Apple HD TV, Apple HDTV, Apple Inc, Apple television, Apple TV, Apple UHDTV, Business Insider, Piper Jaffray
The WSJ reports that Apple has been quietly making major new investments in Internet infrastructure in a move which may simply be designed to boost the performance of its existing online services, but which could also be in readiness for its upcoming television product.
Bill Norton, chief strategy officer for International Internet Exchange, which helps companies line up Internet traffic agreements, estimates that Apple has in a short time bought enough bandwidth from Web carriers to move hundreds of gigabits of data each second.
“That’s the starting point for a very, very big network,” Mr. Norton said …
Apple also made a couple of senior infrastructure hires in September: Lauren Provo from Comcast and Jean-François Mulé, a former technology VP at a TV R&D company.
Apple, of course, already shifts a great deal of data though iTunes, iCloud and the Mac App Store. Historically, it has out-sourced most of that to third-party Content Delivery Network (CDN) companies, with Akamai believed to be Apple’s key supplier, while StreamingMediaBlog, who reported the Apple CDN buildout yesterday, names Level 3 as another major supplier.
Apple building its own CDN would give the company greater control and would likely boost performance for streaming media in particular. This is the approach taken by Netflix, for example, which stores its video content in a number of data caches around the world to enable faster and more reliable delivery.
An iPhone user who subscribes to Sprint Corp., for instance, might download a song more quickly if Sprint’s network links directly to the Apple data center storing that song, rather than channeling the file through a series of middlemen.
So the move may mean nothing more than improving the delivery of Apple’s existing services, but the timing is at least interesting. 2014 is the year for which Tim Cook has said that Apple has “some big plans” and “really great stuff coming.” A new Apple TV is believed to be one of the new products on the way, and building a large content delivery network would certainly be a logical part of the preparations for such a product.
Filed under: AAPL Company Tagged: Apple, Apple HDTV, Apple television, Apple TV, CDN, Content Delivery Network, icloud, iPhone, iTunes, Mac App Store, Sprint